St. Peter's

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	290.0
Current RPI:	290
Expected SOS:	237
Current SOS:	237
Current Record:	9-21
Expected Record:	9-21
Current Conf Record:	3-16
Expected Conf Record:	3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-5
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	223
Expected OOC SOS:	315

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-21	290.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Peter's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Rutgers (109.0)	BE	A	52-56	W	100%
11-12	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	64-61	W	100%
11-16	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	64-68	W	100%
11-18	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	62-54	L	0%
11-25	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	76-61	L	0%
11-28	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	H	61-66	L	0%
12-1	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	66-74	L	0%
12-5	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	64-62	W	100%
12-8	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	H	55-61	L	0%
12-19	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	H	80-67	W	100%
12-22	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	H	49-54	L	0%
12-29	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	A	69-71	W	100%
1-4	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	H	53-55	L	0%
1-6	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	74-58	L	0%
1-11	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	H	58-77	L	0%
1-13	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	66-53	L	0%
1-17	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	54-66	L	0%
1-19	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	59-48	L	0%
1-25	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	A	90-71	L	0%
1-27	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	54-61	L	0%
1-31	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	70-68	W	100%
2-3	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	A	57-49	L	0%
2-7	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	A	61-44	L	0%
2-10	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	H	72-62	W	100%
2-14	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	72-57	L	0%
2-16	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	59-68	L	0%
2-23	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	A	59-66	W	100%
2-28	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	A	77-65	L	0%
3-2	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	78-61	L	0%
3-8	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	N	54-47	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Peter's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

St. Peter's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against St. Peter's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
St. Peter's	MAAC	26.41	26.41	29.86	29.86	-10.64	-10.64
Fairfield	MAAC	6.00	6.00	51.61	51.61	0.19	0.19
Manhattan	MAAC	4.41	4.41	40.00	40.00	-0.88	-0.88
Iona	MAAC	4.40	4.40	61.29	61.29	0.99	0.99
Siena	MAAC	4.32	4.32	23.33	23.33	-2.30	-2.30
Niagara	MAAC	4.32	4.32	56.67	56.67	0.58	0.58
Rider	MAAC	4.31	4.31	53.33	53.33	0.29	0.29
Loyola MD	MAAC	4.29	4.29	63.33	63.33	1.15	1.15
Canisius	MAAC	4.29	4.29	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Marist	MAAC	4.26	4.26	31.03	31.03	-1.62	-1.62
Central Connecticut	NEC	3.46	3.46	46.43	46.43	-0.25	-0.25
Long Island	NEC	1.85	1.85	62.50	62.50	0.46	0.46
Rutgers	BE	1.85	1.85	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	1.83	1.83	57.14	57.14	0.26	0.26
Binghamton	AE	1.80	1.80	3.57	3.57	-1.68	-1.68
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.77	1.77	20.00	20.00	-1.06	-1.06
Seton Hall	BE	1.75	1.75	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
Cornell	Ivy	1.72	1.72	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
Hampton	MEAC	1.67	1.67	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.67	1.67	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Stony Brook	AE	0.41	0.41	76.67	76.67	0.22	0.22
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.32	0.32	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.32	0.32	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.30	0.30	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Vermont	AE	0.30	0.30	65.62	65.62	0.09	0.09
Wagner	NEC	0.30	0.30	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Albany	AE	0.29	0.29	70.59	70.59	0.12	0.12
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.28	0.28	23.33	23.33	-0.15	-0.15
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.27	0.27	17.24	17.24	-0.18	-0.18
Robert Morris	NEC	0.27	0.27	69.70	69.70	0.11	0.11
Maine	AE	0.25	0.25	34.48	34.48	-0.08	-0.08
Monmouth	NEC	0.24	0.24	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.24	0.24	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.22	0.22	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
La Salle	A10	0.21	0.21	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Bryant	NEC	0.19	0.19	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.19	0.19	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.19	0.19	74.29	74.29	0.09	0.09
Columbia	Ivy	0.19	0.19	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.19	0.19	84.38	84.38	0.13	0.13
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.18	0.18	20.00	20.00	-0.11	-0.11
DePaul	BE	0.18	0.18	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.18	22.58	22.58	-0.10	-0.10
New Hampshire	AE	0.17	0.17	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Providence	BE	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.13	0.13	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Notre Dame	BE	0.13	0.13	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.11	0.11	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02